The Quarterback's Value and the West

Years a go I had a theory that the QB was a position in Fantasy Football that you could get away with not having a top tier player and still have a really good team. I've always considered myself the Billy Beane of fantasy football. I've spent hours upon hours figuring out ways to find value in FF players that other owners don't see. However, my theory from years a go on QB's is BS!! Who was I kidding, the way to win in FF is to have the best you can possibly get your hands on at every position. You can win some games, and maybe even sneak into the playoffs with an average to below average Fantasy QB, but you won't win any championships. 3 years a go when I won the Super Bowl, Peyton Manning was my QB. This last season when I played in the Super Bowl, but lost, Drew Brees was my QB, the winning team was led by Aaron Rodgers. Aaron Rodgers had an amazing year in Fantasy last year. So, in recap, get your hands on a top tier QB if at all possible, don't take any big risks on QB's in the draft. It's worth trying to make a trade to acquire a top tier guy if needed. Don't make the trade on draft day, that typically doesn't work in your favor. Wait until a few week into the season. If you are deep at another position, RB or WR, you can usually make a deal, and in a keeper/dynasty league you can trade draft picks to sweeten the deal. Last season I had amazing WR depth, so I traded Matt Ryan, Vince Jackson and a 3rd round pick to acquire Drew Brees. It was well worth it. Stick with what you know on QB's, don't try to be too cute or creative on your QB selection, especially in a keeper/dynasty league. Your starting QB should be a top tier guy, and your backup, ideally, should be a QB that doesn't set the world on fire statistically, but be a low turnover guy. That's something that gets overlooked when making a QB selection. A low turnover backup QB is the safe, smart pick for a backup. If you want to get a little more creative when drafting a QB you can get away with it when selecting a backup.

Now a division by division look at the QB's. I'll start in the West. Tomorrow we will head East.

Arizona Cardinals:
Every year in fantasy magazines they pick 3-4 guys that are sleeper candidates that they just fall in love with and will talk up in a big way. My prediction, Matt Leinart will be one of those guys. My advise, stay away!!! I've been hearing reports from the desert already that Leinart looks great and looks like the real deal. Someone in your league will GREATLY overpay for him, and will probably be disappointed. Ken Wisenhunt when OC for the Steelers actually ran a run heavy, conservative offense. The Cardinals without Warner and Boldin, and an improved OL, and 2 very sound RB's will probably be much more conservative this year. I don't think Leinart will be anything special anyway. He has yet to prove anything at this level. Stay away from this one. However if he happens to fall undrafted, keep an eye on him, could turn into a decent waiver wire pickup.

St. Louis Rams:
Ugh...ummm...well....not much to say here. Sam Bradford, will probably be a really good fantasy QB someday, but not soon. This team has a long ways to go before they are good, and Sam Bradford is probably 3 years from really putting up some numbers. The other QB option in St. Louis is AJ Feeley, ugh. The bright side is, the Rams have a pretty decent OL, and a stud RB which always helps a young QB. My advice is there is no one worth drafting here, this year. Keep your eyes on Bradford though, could be a nice pickup for next year or the year after.

San Fransisco 49ers:
Ugh...again. Alex Smith...this is an easy one. Stay away. Simple as that. They have a good run game and what looks like a stud WR in Crabtree. Smith could turn into a waiver wire pickup, but not anything worth wasting a draft pick on.

Seattle Seahawks:
Wow, nothing to get excited about here either. Hasselback is tough, and is a gamer, but he is also way past his prime. He probably has some good games left in him, but not a season. At best he is worth a selection as a backup on a one year deal, that's it.

Denver Broncos:
When Brandon Marshall was still catching passes in Denver there QB situation looked a lot better. Not sure what to think now. My hunch is telling me stay away. I didn't like the overall makeup of this team last year, but they surprised. I don't think they will be as successful this year though. If Orton wins the QB job, he is worth a backup QB look. Yes, you read that correctly. Remember what I said in the intro about having a low turnover backup QB?? See Kyle Orton. 2 things scare me about Orton this year though, no Brandon Marshall, and Brady Quinn/Tim Tebow. I'm not sure Denver will be happy with Orton at Qb with those 2 highly touted guys sitting behind them, even though Orton is a better QB than both. I wouldn't be surprised if he gets squeezed for playing time. My advice, stay away from any of the Denver QB's. And please, don't draft Tebow!!

Kansas City Chiefs:
I actually think Matt Cassel has some potential. He is more than just a system QB from New England. His success will depend greatly on the players around him. Will Dwayne Bowe finally decide to use the god given talent he possesses? Will Chris Chambers put together another decent season or 2? He actually looked pretty good last season, best he has looked in a looooong time. Will Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones run well enough to take pressure off of Cassel? I think the answer to all of those questions could be yes. Cassel is worth a LATE pick as a backup or a waiver wire pickup. I think he will have a better season than what most people are expecting/predicting. He could turn into a nice player for a few years.

Oakland Raiders:
Well, there QB situation looks better than a year a go, but that's not saying much. Jason Campbell is in a similar situation as Matt Cassel, he could be worth a late pick as a backup. There are some talented WR's in Oakland. They are young, but they are talented. Campbell is nothing more than a fantasy backup, but not the worst you could do for a backup either.

San Diego Chargers:
Ah, finally a QB to get excited about. Rivers is an excellent selection for any Fantasy League format. The last few years Rivers has been under valued. I'm not sure if will be again going forward, but in the past he Rivers has taken a back see to Peyton, Brees and even Tom Brady, during the draft that is. Statistically he is in the same class as Manning and Brees, and is better than Brady. Rivers is every bit the fantasy Qb as those other guys, and the Chargers love to throw the ball! If you are in need of a top tier QB don't shy away from Rivers in the least. He is still young and will have many more great fantasy seasons.

Coming tomorrow....

Coming soon to a blog near me....

Friday May 21st, QB draft strategies for dynasty/keeper league's. A breakdown of the importance of QB's to the fantasy world, some young QB's to target for your 2010 draft, and who you might want to avoid.

About this blog

With my official first blog, I would like to talk a bit about myself and delve into what my blog is all about.

I'm an avid sports fan. I follow baseball, basketball, and football. I enjoy college as well as the pro games. Michigan State is probably my favorite college basketball team. For years I've admired how coach Izzo coaches his team. In football I grew up as a Notre Dame fan, so I still refer to them as my favorite team, although I don't follow them as closely as some of the other teams I call my favorite. I currently reside in the Pacific Northwest, so I follow the Pac 10 teams quite close. The Rams are my favorite pro football team, no doubt about it, and it will never change. I grew up with Eric Dickerson and have been hooked ever since. MLB Baseball, my team is the Oakland A's, no question on this one either. I grew up watching the bash brothers and have followed them closely ever since. However I'm not so sure I would have been so high on them knowing what we all know now. In pro basketball I grew up loving the Bulls and Michael Jordan, but since moving to the Portland area I've really grown to like the Blazers led by Brandon Roy.

Now onto why I started a Fantasy Football Blog (like there aren't enough already right??), well I love fantasy football, I could talk it about year round, no problem. However I don't have any friends that are a big geek like me when it comes to this fantasy stuff. So why not start a blog?? I'm sure there are some ff geeks like me out there somewhere, right? Well, I guess I will find out. What makes my Fantasy Football blog different from others you ask? Well I'm glad you did. I've been playing in a very complex, detailed keeper league for a lot of years, and I wouldn't have it any other way. Most Fantasy Football sites, magazines and blogs don't cater to keeper leagues. I've created this blog to specialize to keeper league players/owners. Now that's not to say the info provided here won't pertain to non keeper leagues, but keeper leagues are my specialty. I've had 2 Super Bowl appearances in the last 3 years, with 1 title won during that span. I'm also commissioner of this same keeper league. I was not the creator of the league, but when he decided to step down, I decided to step up.

I would encourage anyone that reads this blog to be active and involved. I love to answer questions and get into debates.